Neilly There: Has Aston Villa's time run out?

IT WAS ONLY weeks ago that Aston Villa were in the ascendant seat to break into the ”Big four” party and gate-crash the European giants. Every member of the team has had input into the goal tally and seven players have scored four or more.

With only nine games left in the season and tough away fixtures to come, reluctantly and perhaps unjustly, the Villains look set for a scrap for 5th place with Everton, having sacrificed their UEFA Cup campaign precisely to avoid the current slump.

The weekend’s activities saw Arsenal claw back into the final Champions League place after a resounding victory over relegation-fighting Blackburn. A 4-0 whitewash and a goal for new-boy Arshavin gave the Emirates crowd plenty to smile about and a day later that smile turned into a grin. A Tottenham victory at Villa Park pushed Arsenal level with Aston Villa on points and ahead on goal difference.

This defeat for O’Neill’s side is their 5th straight League match without a victory and the only point achieved has been against struggling Stoke City. Even this match was a huge disappointment for the Midlands side who led 2-0 before the final minutes, until Stoke hit back to pull level in the closing seconds. Defeated by CSKA Moscow 3-1 on aggregate also halted a promising cup run which was ended abruptly by the Russian side.

So what has dented a Villa team’s fantastic opportunity to secure 4th spot in the League? With Liverpool and Manchester United in their next two games, Villa must recapture the sparkling form that once gripped the nation or risk the crumbling of foundations secured with their earlier efforts. Loss of form is the obvious answer but not the only one. Here are the possible reasons behind this drop in standards:

Squad Fitness

As we hit the last nine games of the season, are Aston Villa experiencing difficulties in fitness? The Villains got off to a brilliant start winning five of their six matches and never looked back. Maintaining their blistering form enabled them to keep up the pressure on league leaders Manchester United and only a month ago were five points behind the chase. That gap has now stretched to 13 and doesn’t look like closing.

Perhaps the problem facing Villa at the moment is a lack of strong depth in the squad. With the likes of Agbonlahor, Young, Carew and Barry starting to feel the effects of an extraordinary league run, as well as cup ties, O’Neill needs players in the squad that can come in and carry the team to the finishing post. Only Heskey was captured in the recent transfer window and although the probable reason was O’Neill’s unwillingness to tamper with the squad harmony, the effects are now for all to see.

Pressure and Gabriel

The pressure of late exacted on The Villains has been phenomenal, especially towards the English stars. With Everton the last team to break the top four boundaries, Villa have been under huge pressure. Until now, that pressure appeared to have had no effect on the stability or performance of the team, but has it finally taken its toll? The final third of Premier League fixtures usually makes or breaks a team’s fortunes and the only way to perform at the top of your game is to block out all unwanted factors. Even the Villa fans have begun to burden their team with unbearable pressure.

During the defeat to Tottenham, supporters could be heard booing Gabriel Agbonlahor for his recent performances. The speed demon has netted 11 goals this season but only two since mid-December. With it, Aston Villa haven’t won since the 2-0 victory over Blackburn Rovers at Ewood Park on 7th February. Yesterday, Martin O’Neill openly criticised the Villa fans, stunned out how the clubs top scorer has been treated of late. The partnership with Heskey was dubbed as a dream come true but so far it has yet to materialise.

Uncertainty of squad

European success or Premier League positioning. What were Villa’s aims heading into 2009? When drawn with perhaps one the toughest opponents in the last 16 of the UEFA cup, the tie should have been quite a contest. The Russian opponents of CSKA Moscow would be a serious challenge to Villa’s cup aspirations. The opening leg resulted in a 1-1 draw at Villa Park, but still there was light at the end of the tunnel. Travelling to Moscow is not the hardest task that you could potentially be given. Still, the million dollar question remained of how O’Neill would deal with the threat that CSKA provided. The answer to which, I should expect, no-one would have guessed.

The three time Russian champions took full advantage of O’Neill’s eight changes to the starting eleven and carved out an easy 2-0 victory, with it, securing progress to the last 16. A hammer blow if you were a Villa fan seated at the Luzhniki Stadium, but for O’Neill the defeat would give them the edge in the league over an Arsenal side still in the hunt for European glory. The defeat, however, had an impact on Villa’s next fixtures and although Whelan’s injury time equaliser for Stoke was hardly just, Aston Villa haven’t produced a point since.

The seasons climax

So for the remainder of the season, what is to come for Villa’s strugglers? Well first and foremost the Villains need wins to keep the heat up on the London side. As I mentioned earlier though, with the forthcoming fixtures away to both Liverpool and United, victory looks uncertain. In three weeks time when O’Neill’s side meet a resurgent Everton at Villa Park, the teams could well have switched Premier League positions. The Toffees’ are sat only four points off the pace and could well make an unforeseen appearance in the season’s late showdown. David Moyes’s side travel to the southern coast to play Pompey next Saturday, before taking on Steve Bruce’s Wigan Athletic a week later. Both are winnable games that could give them the edge on a Villa side struggling for confidence.

Arsenal are also unlikely to drop many points in the run-in to the end of the season. With the return of many first-team players and fielding one of the strongest attacking options any Premiership team has to offer, the world is at their feet. It’s a fantastic time for Arsenal to make an appearance this season, with the Champions League Quarter final draw later this week.

The battle for 4th spot in the league looks likely to go the distance but who will win the war and stay strong to pick up the pieces. There’s only way to find out.

Life after Curbs: Charlton Athletic’s road to rock bottom

AFTER 15 YEARS of heartache, success and drama, Charlton Athletic Chairmen Richard Murray announced to a stadium of Addick fans in 2006 that legendary boss Alan Curbishley would be leaving his post at the end of the season.

The announcement, made on the April 29th before a Premier League fixture, stunned thousands of supporters crammed into The Valley and shocked Athletic players who were none the wiser. As many expected, Charlton crumbled to a 2-0 home defeat against European place chasing Blackburn Rovers.

Nearly three years on, four managers later and in excess of £20 million worth of debt, The Addicks are situated rock bottom of The Championship and 12 points adrift of safety. The HSBC building society has also recently withdrawn their overdraft facility, but Murray has quelled reports that the club face going into administration.

Curbs and Effect

So what has happened to the club that survived the Premiership drama for five years before internally combusting? Well, let’s start with Curbishley. His reason for stepping down from the post was because of the belief that he had achieved all he could at the club. In the time period of his notice, Alan had been linked with the England job and was even interviewed by the F.A before their decision to appoint Steve McLaren as boss.

Curbishley’s departure from the club after 15 years was always to have a negative effect in the dressing room but surely not as deep a one to push the stable team into a steep relegation battle in the following season. When Sir Alex Ferguson retires from football after more than 20 years in the job, Manchester United wouldn’t be expected to drop their standards of football - that is if they employ a manager with a proven track record that can handle the pressure of Premier League football.

Life after Curbs

Iain Dowie was appointed after a great record with Crystal Palace. Of course, the disappointment of relegation was overwhelming for both Dowie and Palace, but with it they were given the chance to start again and rebuild during the summer for a promotion push. However, despite relegation, Dowie had impressed as a manager and rumours circulated that Palace Chairmen Simon Jordon had been approached by a number of top flight clubs wishing to attract Dowie. In fact the only approach made was from Milan Mandaric of Portsmouth.

In his Charlton reign he was given more money than any other manager, in order to buy success for the club, but to their dismay couldn’t keep the team away from the relegation zone. A disastrous start to the season spelled trouble at The Valley and after only 12 games in charge was dismissed, leaving Charlton manager less and in the relegation zone.

Les Reid was drafted in temporarily but suffered the same fate as Dowie. Unable to inspire a sorrowful team he was replaced by ex-West Ham boss Alan Pardew. Appointed on Christmas Eve to a Charlton team on 12 points and a -20 goal difference, Pardew was unable to steer Charlton clear of relegation from the Premier League.

Many football enthusiasts expected a rebound for the Addicts, especially after the signings of Luke Varney and Chris Iwelumo. However, Charlton were unable to mount a serious title challenge and ended the season in lowly 11th.

The road to League 1

Therefore, the 08/09 season would be a test to both Charlton’s and Pardew’s resolve and after opening victories against Swansea and Reading, Charlton fans sensed hope for the first time since he took charge.

The winning start failed to continue and during the winter spell of matches, Charlton suffered 17 matches without a win. Expectedly Pardew was drafted out of The Valley equation and Parkinson took over from an assistant manager position to try and halt the slump.

So with 37 games played, Charlton sit 24th in The Championship and 10 points from 23rd placed Southampton. For the remaining nine fixtures, is there hope of a miracle revival?

Unfortunately for The Addicks - four wins look unlikely - let alone achieving enough points to secure safety. For Charlton fans they must walk the same route that so many top flight teams have faced. Over the years the likes of Wimbledon, Leeds United, Leicester City and Bradford have all descended from the Premier League but then continued a downward spiral to the lower leagues.

The problem clubs such as these face, is the unwritten law of the ‘one year chance.’ This notion has two effects on recently relegated clubs.

Firstly, the board give the current manager one year to improve the clubs standing. Promotion in that year is priority number one, in order to avoid as much debt problems as can be helped - but also to satisfy fans that have been used to the entertainment that Premier League football comes with.

Secondly, the club’s top players give the team one year to improve on their position - again promotion - before they leave to highest bidder.

Some teams are able to build during the summer and push for re-promotion the following season. Birmingham City and Reading are currently proving this in the Championship, seated 2nd and 3rd respectively.

However, when managerial changes and player departures rock clubs, there is only one way that the team will head. Moral, motivation and inspiration are all key factors for a healthy team and unfortunately for Charlton, they lack all three.

League 1 is their fate. Whether the spiral continues after that has yet to be seen.

Three's Company: Who's destined for the Premier League drop?

ANOTHER TURBULENT Premier League season is slowly grinding to a halt and although the Manchester United vs. Liverpool match is the highlight of the forthcoming weekend, the relegation battle should certainly not be overlooked.

The title race is definitely the phrase on people’s mouths and should Liverpool grab the opportunity to pull back precious points on the quintuple hopefuls, then the closing weeks will surely have most fans on the edge of their seats. However, if by this time next week United’s lead at the top has been extended over Benitez’s squad, it will be another dismal end to a promising season for the Reds. Chelsea would then become the only force in front of Ferguson’s charge, and we all know how they’ve looked against Sir Alex since Mourinho left the manager post.

So what do we have to look forward to at that point? How about one of the most hotly contested relegation scraps in some time? Going into the weekend games at least 10 clubs sit squarely in the Premier League drop picture.

But who are the chosen few that have the best chance of falling off the Premier League cliff? Whilst that picture won’t be clear for another month, the seven clubs below are a good start to any relegation debate.


Newcastle United

So back to the relegation battle. Is it possible that Newcastle United could be relegated from England’s top division? Surely not. They have a great squad and one that should be challenging for honours further up the table. Aside from Manchester United and possibly Chelsea, some of the talent in their line-up is quality enough to fit into most of the division’s first eleven. But is that the problem. Are there too many egos’ corrupting the club? A strike-force of Michael Owen and Obafemi Martins should strike fear into the eyes of the opposition, but a combined total of 14 league goals between them has limited Newcastle’s ambitions. Owen has again been riddled with injuries and the cursed striker can’t find his way into Capello’s England squad either. This hasn’t helped his confidence.

However, the main problem is the leaky defence. For the remaining 10 fixtures, they need to shut up tight and move forward starting from the back. The performance in the defeat to Manchester United was a vast improvement from their previous outings and the passion and confidence needs to stay. The key is adapting to a dogged style – effectively to fight for their lives. This weekend is big for the Toon Army against fellow relegation battlers, Hull City.

Hull City

Hull began life in the Premier League superbly. Their performances were top notch and everyone was raving over Phil Brown and Giovanni’s stunning strikes. Since hitting the 26 mark in league points, results have been hard to come by. The injury-time winner against Fulham was absolutely crucial and has pushed a bit of day-light between themselves and the chasing pack.

Five points though, is in no way safe. Apparently achieving around 40 points keeps a team safe. Brown will be looking at this weekend’s fixture as a stepping stone to that mark and future games at home to Portsmouth and away to Middlesbrough could give them that sacred safety. In times of trouble stick together and battle to the death. That’s all they can do and I would certainly prefer Hull’s position to that of Portsmouth.

Portsmouth

An F.A cup victory and a tremendous start in the league. Six months ago, Portsmouth fans were in heaven. Harry Redknapp was hailed a hero and a squad boasting players of Jermaine Defoe’s credentials was looking to challenge for a European finish. Then, Ramos was sacked from Tottenham and a day later Harry was named as the new manager. A kick in the shin for the summer transfers that arrived at the Southern coast eager to experience the Houdini magic.

Since November they have mustered up a grand total of…six points. Hardly relegation surviving form. The victory over Manchester City was a real surprise from a team lacking any form of bite. Still, there are some key games for Paul Hart’s team in the coming weeks including Middlesbrough, Hull City and West Bromwich Albion. Tony Adams sacking could be said as harsh, but was he really inspiring an already lacklustre team? Unfortunately in today’s game a few bad results could mean the end of your reign. However, the change has not achieved much in the way of results and last year’s success is now a distant memory.

West Bromwich Albion

Bottom of the league and going nowhere fast – looks like doom and gloom for the desperate West Brom. Six points off safety is not the end of the world, but it is when the performances of late have been simply dire. Their last win was back on the 17th of January and to be honest one hasn’t looked like coming since. The dogged display so needed in the relegation battle is not there and instead West Brom have adopted a ‘’roll over and be beaten’’ strategy.

I can’t see where the performances will spring from and the only possible saviour is that they have four or five games against teams around them in the league. These simply have to be wins. None the less West Brom achieved the seemingly impossible a few years ago under Bryan Robson. Bottom at Christmas and without a hope; they were able to scrape out by the skin of the teeth. I am expecting no such repeat though this time around.

Stoke City

Stoke City have built a name for themselves, however, not one I’m sure they would agree with. ‘’One man army’’ is what many football fans have dubbed them but in truth Stoke are far from that. Rory Delap has obviously been the pinnacle of their attacking play with his long range throw-ins, but there always has to be players in the team to finish off the moves.

The strike-force of Fuller and Beattie have notched up 12 between them and crucial goals they have been. However, it’s the defensive play that deserves the most credit and one man in particular has saved Stoke on various occasions. If it were not for Thomas Sorensen, the club would be in serious jeopardy right about now. Countless times the Dane has rescued his side including both 0-0 draws against Liverpool. Stoke are in a precarious position, one point off relegation and the battling team need to continue clutching results. A couple of good results including the draw against Aston Villa and the win against Bolton will have given them an air of confidence and this must be kept in order to avoid the drop.

Middlesbrough

Regardless of what anyone says, Gareth Southgate has done a tremendous job at The Riverside. With little resources, he has bought well and to keep Stuart Downing was a huge success. However, despite this his side lie 19th in the league and face a battle for survival. A 4-0 drubbing to Tottenham and an F.A cup loss to Everton were their last outings but there is potential for a fight back, especially with the 2-0 defeat of Liverpool in recent history.

12 years ago Middlesbrough were descending to the second flight of English football and star man Juninho was in tears. Over a decade later, will the Premier League be waving farewell to Boro once more? The next five games are crucial. To stay up, you need to beat teams around you and that is exactly what Southgate’s squad must do. Portsmouth, Stoke and Hull are very winnable matches and should these results go Middlesbrough’s way, they will be nearly there.

Blackburn Rovers

The final team with a feasible chance of hitting the relegation zone. The turning point of the current season being the change in management. Paul Ince will one day be back in top flight management, but it was simply too early for him to take on a team in serious change. Mark Hughes achieved wonders in his time at the club and Ince’s job would always be difficult. Since his departure, Allardyce has begun to install his method of play into the side.

The win at Fulham was massive and it has pushed Rovers into safety territory. Unfortunate not for a penalty at Old Trafford, Blackburn stormed on, beating Hull and taking a point from in-form Everton. Out of the relegation candidates, they have hit the best form. Another favourable advantage for them is playing West Brom at home on the final day of the season. If the league goes down to the wire, that’s the team everyone would want to play on current form.

Prediction

So after all the talk of the possible relegation sufferers, who has the best chance of hitting rock bottom? Well my favourites are:

West Brom – Not enough spite about them. Struggling with performances and bottom of the league. No one wants to be there.

Stoke City – Another of the promotion boys I’m expecting to go. The team have been grinding out results of late but in reality the quality is not there.

Portsmouth – I don’t like to admit it but Portsmouth’s chance of survival look slim. Despite a win against Manchester City, they have struggled to find any consistency and results are hard to come by.

F.A cup preview...

WHETHER THE F.A CUP has lost its glamour and respect over the last few years has yet to be seen, but with the Quarter Finals of this prestigious event looming, spectators and supporters alike will be screaming for an upset.

The weekend’s activities begin with a double header of viewing. Championship side Coventry will be up for the challenge against Chelsea’s billionaires in the earlier kick-off on Saturday afternoon. Having already defeated Premier League strugglers Blackburn in the last round, will have given Chris Coleman’s side a huge boost and this cup test will come as a welcome relief from the league. Effectively rooted to a mid-table finish, Coventry’s only aspirations this season will arrive from the F.A cup. However a more favourable draw could have been handy for the Sky Blues who shouldn’t expect much from the visiting Londoners. Gus Hiddink has pulled his lacklustre side back into the title race (if only just) and a single goal against Juventus has given them the edge in their Champions league tie. Leapfrogging Liverpool in the league and now only seven points behind leaders Manchester United, Chelsea are back on track and challenging on three fronts. I wouldn’t expect the Dutchman to produce his strongest team for his trip to the midlands, however, surely with the main focus on the trip to Turin.

Fulham vs. Manchester United. An all Premiership clash and one that COULD go right down to the wire. Fulham have been great at home but poor away (luckily the tie is at home then). The mid-week loss to Hull was a surprising result, given the two team’s recent form and one that the squad will want to bounce back from, quickly. Hodgson has done at remarkable job at Craven Cottage and with limited resources too. The board received a lot of slack when he was appointed and his hiring was a surprise to most. However, he kept the London side up and has taken them to the top 10 of the Premiership. Manchester United on the other hand are in sensational form and how they didn’t score against Inter Milan in anyone’s guess. Top of the league and aiming for an amazing quintuple, United are playing well and getting the right results. A top defence and creative midfield has made their season and the early poor form is well and truly in the past. Like Chelsea, I can’t see the strongest of teams played in this tie, with Fergusons mind surely set on the return visit of Milan.

Turn the clock back 12 years. The F.A cup final is competed between Middlesbrough and Chelsea. 90 minutes later and Chelsea have secured a 2-0 victory sealing Middlesbrough’s fate, with no cup success and relegation from the top flight. Back to present time – could history be repeated? Middlesbrough are having a seemingly decent cup run, but remain in relegation worry. Knocking out in-form West Ham in the previous round, Gareth Southgate’s side have a genuine chance of reaching the semi’s – if only a trip to Goodison wasn’t standing in their way. The Toffee’s take up 6^th place in the league and sit only four points off Arsenal. A conundrum and a half for David Moyes. Should he focus on cup success or on knocking Arsenal out of the final European spot? This all Premier League clash should be quite a contest and I would expect a few younger players to be given a chance. A narrow win either way.

The last Quarter Final tie to be discussed is between Arsenal and Burnley. Injuries have dominated the news from The Emirates, especially in the attacking department. Fabregas, Adebayor and Rosicky are all definitely out, while doubts remain over Eduardo. The only positive is the return of Theo Walcott. Arsene Wenger admitted recently that Arsenal’s goal scoring problems will need to be put to an end if they are to overhaul Villa in the league. The Villains remain six points ahead with 10 games remaining, so expect the battle to be fierce. Championship side Burnley on the other hand are in a rich vein of form and are just outside of the play-off positions. The team has improved as the season has progressed losing only one in eight. Taking points off league giants Wolverhampton and Birmingham has boosted their promotion bid and maybe the F.A cup tie can provide some light before the following hectic weeks.

F.A Cup predictions:

1- Coventry vs. Chelsea -3

Chelsea should take the win here and progress at Coventry’s expense. Maybe a consolation goal for the Sky Blues but nothing more.

0- Fulham vs. Manchester United -2

United’s form will continue this weekend and even with a weakened starting eleven, they should overcome Fulham and maintain their quintuple hopes.

2- Arsenal vs. Burnley -1

Arsenals slump has to end sometime. They won in mid-week comfortably against West Brom but Burnley will tougher.

1- Everton vs. Middlesbrough -1

A tricky tie but I’m going with a draw. Neither side will field their strongest team. I expect a game with few chances.